Looking only at M, it appears to be the case that his conscious control of 28 was responsible for his automatic-like control of 28 at time 2. There is, however, another possibility--M's conscious use of 28 before time 2 may have had nothing to do with his subsequent acquisition of rule 28. Rather, 28 was acquired by both M and U through understanding intake, where the focus was on meaning and not form. (In a trivial sense, M's own use of 28 was intake, especially at the time M was "ready" for 28 and may have added to the intake from other sources.) The model I am proposing predicts, moreover, that U, dealing with the same intake, would acquire 28 at the same time as M (or maybe slightly later--see comments above). In the case of U, no conscious knowledge preceded acquired competence.
In a sense, M was "faking" 28 until his acquisition caught up, or until he arrived at rule 28 "naturally". Until time 2, he was outperforming his acquired competence.
Some performers will not make it to 28 at all; they will "fossilize" (Selinker, 1972) earlier, due to failure to obtain enough intake, or a failure to utilize intake for acquisition due to an overactive affective filter. The conscious rule may, in this case, be the permanent solution.
Positing a natural order and the existence of language acquisition in the adult allows us to explain the failure of conscious rules to always become automatic competence, and also explains cases like the above, where it appears that conscious rule was responsible for acquisition just because it "came first".